Huge reduction in European carbon emissions

European vehicle manufacturers have started to see a significant reduction in their average emissions levels and are largely on track to hit targets set by the European Commission.

That’s despite new car registrations being severely affected by the Covid-19 pandemic and is according to data collected and updated on a monthly basis by analysts JATO Dynamics who looked at data for 21 countries across Europe.

JATO found that average CO₂ emissions totalled 102.2g/km under the New European Driving Cycle (NEDC) between January and August 2020. By these calculations, the European automotive market is currently only 6.5g/km over its combined target for 2021– a dramatic shift when compared to figures recorded in 2019.

Despite overall registrations falling by 29% between January and September this year – when contrasted with the same period in 2019 – registrations for electrified cars increased by 67% through September to 1.54 million units.

This remarkable increase goes some way to explain the double-digit drops seen in demand for petrol/gasoline and diesel cars, and the increase in market share for EVs from 7.8% in January – September 2019, to 18.1% in January – September 2020.

Currently, the European Commission sets an average emissions target that must be met by the EU fleet. For cars, this target is currently 95g/km in 2020 and for vans, the target is 147g/km.

These targets will be converted into WLTP CO2 emissions targets in 2021 following the change in the vehicle CO2 test procedure, and the 2021 actual emissions will represent the new baseline.

Manufacturers will then have to meet a 15% reduction for cars and vans by 2025, and a 37.5% reduction for cars and a 31% reduction for vans by 2030, both against this 2021 baseline.

From these, manufacturers receive individual targets that are set according to the mass of their fleet. Manufacturers with heavier fleets receive individual targets above the EU target; manufacturers with lighter fleets receive targets below the EU target.

Volvo greenest OEM

Geely Group has secured pole position in the race for CO₂ rankings and smashed its target. Outperforming Toyota – which has traditionally led by brand in the CO₂ race –  the owner of Volvo (which accounts for 99% of Geely Group’s volume in Europe), Polestar, LEVC and Lotus, met the target by August, four months ahead of the deadline.

Geely’s CO₂ target for 2020 was an average of 110.3g/km, but by  the end of August its average was 103.1g/km – making Geely the only manufacturer to outperform the target. A consistent focus on EVs is behind this achievement, with electrified vehicles accounting for almost half of its registrations in August, and 38% in January – August 2020.

BMW was next in line to meet the target with an average of 103.5g/km in August, only 0.54g/km above its target of 102.9g/km. If this average remained the same, the German car maker would only have to pay a minimal penalty at the end of the year.

Meeting its target is more than achievable due to a mix of two strategies: increasing the share of electrified vehicles on sale, and the relatively low emissions generated by BMW diesels.

Toyota also seems to be in a good position, said JATO, and was only 2.2g away from its target.

However, it seems that its hybridisation plans are now stalling, said JATO. For the past three years, hybrids have accounted for around two thirds of Toyota’s registrations in Europe, yet they are still not meeting the targets.

Furthermore, its pure electric vehicles with zero-emissions have taken a long time to arrive in Europe – with the new Lexus UX 300e, the first fully electric vehicle of the group, finally hitting the market this year, said JATO.

The strategy of Korea's largest maker, Hyundai, has been to boost its small SUVs and green compact cars, explains JATO. While hybrids accounted for 65% of Toyota Group volume in August, they only made up 13% for Hyundai.

However, pure electric cars represented 8% of registrations for the Korean manufacturer, while Toyota has been unable to put any on sale this year.

Jato says that this perfectly demonstrates how pure EVs are much more strongly placed to meet emissions targets, perhaps more so, than hybrid vehicles.

If you require any further information or advice on this topic, please contact info@fleetlogistics.com.