CO2 emissions continue to rise across Europe

Vehicle CO2 emissions have risen for a third consecutive year across Europe to their highest levels in the last six years, as the switch to electric vehicles failed to counteract the impact of falling diesel sales and the rise of higher-polluting SUVs. A new report from JATO Dynamics has revealed that the volume weighted average CO2 emissions across 23 analysed European markets reached 121.8 g/km under the NEDC vehicle test regime during 2019 - 1.3 g/km higher than in 2018 and their highest since 2014.

A new report from JATO Dynamics has revealed that the volume weighted average CO2 emissions across 23 analysed European markets reached 121.8 g/km under the NEDC vehicle test regime during 2019 - 1.3 g/km higher than in 2018 and their highest since 2014.

The rate of increase slowed, however, as this was a lower increase than that seen between 2017 and 2018, when the rise was 2.4 g/km.

JATO reported that the move away from diesel had had a negative impact leading to increased CO2 emissions across Europe.

Felipe Munoz, global analyst at JATO, said the rise was expected: “The combination of fewer diesel registrations and more SUVs continued to have an impact on emissions.

“We don’t anticipate any change to this trend in the mid-term. Indeed these results further highlight the industry’s need to adopt EVs at a rapid pace to reach emissions targets.”

Munoz said: “The average emissions of electrified vehicles was 63.2 g/km, almost half that produced by diesel and petrol vehicles. But the problem arose because EVs only accounted for 6% of total registrations, which is not yet a high enough figure to create a positive change.”

Germany, the UK, Italy and Spain all registered rising average CO2 emissions in 2019, which JATO said was in part caused by marked changes in attitude and regulations around the use of diesel fuels which has had the unintended consequence of pushing people to drive higher CO2 emitting petrol vehicles.

France was the only market to see better results, as its average fell from 112 g/km in 2018, to 111.1 g/km last year. Despite this positive change, its emission levels were still higher than the averages recorded in 2016 and 2017.

Pure electric cars have a 2% market share in France, this being the highest share among all five major markets, in part due to the adoption of more affordable cars like the Renault Zoe, which is soon to be followed by the arrival of the Peugeot e-208.

Munoz said: “Neither German nor Italian manufacturers offer pure electric subcompacts within their product line up. These cars can make a huge difference to consumer attitude.”

Other countries that included CO2 emissions improvements last year were Sweden and the Netherlands. The latter reduced its average by 5.9 g/km, in turn becoming the country with the lowest result in the European Union, excluding Denmark, Portugal and Finland who cannot be compared due to their publication of WLTP data rather than NEDC values.

JATO reported that Toyota holds its position as the top 20 best-selling brand with the lowest average CO2 emissions in Europe, despite not selling a full electric vehicle in its range, with its average CO2 emissions falling by 2.3 g/km.

Toyota’s hybrid range made up 60% of its total sales volume in 2019 and the brand intends selling 5.5m electrified cars by 2030.

Munoz said: “Toyota is a pertinent case, particularly considering they don’t offer pure electric cars but are still ahead of their European peers who still have more electrification plans than actual products.”

Along with Lexus brand, Toyota posted an average of 99.0 g/km of CO2 in 2019, 14.3 g/km less than the next best in the ranking, PSA.

At group level, Nissan Group, Renault Group, Mitsubishi and Suzuki posted average emissions lower than the total market’s average of 121.8 g/km. Volkswagen Group, Europe’s largest maker, recorded an average of 123.6 g/km.

Citroen had the second-lowest average CO2 emissions of any brand in 2019. But, in contrast to Toyota, the improvement made was due to the efficiency of its petrol engines, however, rather than the adoption of electrified ones, JATO noted.

SUVs were the biggest driver of growth in terms of volume and profits for European markets last year.

The trend is something that OEMs will attempt to redress in 2020/21 as stringent new EU emissions regulations impose a €95 fine for each gram of CO2 over its 95 g/km fleet average, per vehicle sold.

JATO reported that the average CO2 emissions of SUVs in 2019, which made up 38% of registrations, was 131.5 g/km, which was higher than emissions posted from city-cars (107.7 g/km), subcompacts (109.2 g/km), compacts (115.3 g/km), midsize (117.9 g/km), and executive cars (131 g/km).

Munoz said: “The SUV segment of the market urgently needs more electrified models.

“To date, the focus for EVs has been on traditional hatchbacks and sedans, leaving very few choices in the SUV market. If these vehicles want to keep gaining traction and avoid future sanctions, they need to be electrified.”